Former Congresswoman Susan Molinari Brought Down The Curtain At The Final Event Of Annual Conference 2000.

Susan Molinari is something of a human dynamo. Smart, perky and pretty, Molinari was twice elected to the New York City Council before becoming a member of Congress where she served from 1990 to 1997. In 1994, she was elected to the eight-person Republican Majority Leadership making her the highest ranking woman in Congress. She left Congress to co-anchor the team that was inaugurating CBS News Saturday Morning. Today she is chairman of a Washington-based government affairs and strategic communications firm bearing her name, a well-known one in New York politics. She continues a television career as host of the weekly, nationally televised talk show, "The Flipside with Susan Molinari."

As a third-generation public servant, Molinari has had ample opportunities to observe first-hand the political world in which she has been a key player. Prior to the Tuesday night dinner that closed the Annual Conference, she offered her views on what was then happening in the political landscape surrounding the national election. (Editor's note: Keep in mind that these remarks were made September 26.)

"While I have only been in the public relations world for one year," Molinari began, "I come here somewhat prepared because politics, and especially a political campaign, are not unlike public relations. With the candidate as the brand, the ads and the direct mail serve to protect the brand -- or re-brand it on a weekly basis as the case may be."

To be a successful candidate for office, she said, one must not only tap into the minds of the constituency but also take a place in their hearts. "I submit, how many of you would turn down an opportunity for your business or your client to be on Oprah or Live with Regis?"

Politics and public relations, aside from having many similarities in their overall operation, affect each other greatly, she said. "Which party controls the Congress will undoubtedly have an impact on all of your clients and your business. The same is true of the future inhabitants of the White House."

Offering the first of her political predictions, Molinari said, "This is just a guess -- and with apologies to those of you who represent those companies here -- but big oil, chemical manufacturers and pharmaceutical companies will probably not do well under a Gore administration. Labor unions best watch out for a Bush White House, and film studios, well you just might as well stay in California because nobody in D.C. likes you anymore.

"That being established, let's take a quick snapshot of what the election may look like and examine those outcomes in light of four political trends that I think affect your futures."

The first is the Presidential campaign. "George Bush has obviously had several difficult weeks post-Democratic convention," she said. "He couldn't get his issues across during the first few weeks because he was confusing billions and trillions, something that somebody handling the national budget should probably get right. He also couldn't get the word 'subliminal' right. Nevertheless, Gore's last few weeks haven't been a public relations dream either, after hearing how his dog ate his prescription drug reform proposal and his attempts to sing the union label lullaby."

The polls now appear dead even, Molinari said, and while the electoral map today favors Gore, electoral map polls, because they are state polls, usually lag behind national polls.

The states to watch, she said, are Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin and Missouri. "Those are the states that will in fact determine the next President of the United States. A small percentage change in any of them can be huge."

The debates, Molinari said, are going to be very important in determining how people view these Presidential candidates. "The echo chamber that surrounds the performance is very important."

A second trend that has to be watched, Molinari said, is the United States Senate campaign. Current polls showed the Republicans retaining control of the Senate, she said, but there are some interesting seats to watch. These include New York where "if the election were held today, Mrs. Clinton would win" but it is still going to be interesting how that all plays out. Another interesting race, Molinari continued, is New Jersey where spending by Jon Corzine has been the big issue. It's difficult to run against that kind of spending. A third key Senate race is in Michigan where the incumbent, a republican, is making a comeback after being down in the polls.

As far as her own former hunting ground is concerned, Molinari was confident that the Democrats would not gain the seven seats needed to take over the House of Representatives. "It's a very close call, but right now, most analysts give a slight edge to the Republicans," she said.

What all of this means, Molinari added, is that we're going to have a "seesaw" Congress for a good long time. Gone are the days of the super majority. "We're going to see a House," she said, "that is going to be very difficult to lead and very difficult to predict."

As far as lobbying is concerned, she added, "you can no longer assume that if you have a targeted group, you're in. The targeting must be specific. You can't count on all the Republicans or all the Democrats because if three or four go off the reservation, you better have a game plan as to how to fill that gap."

Defacto term limits for members is also an issue. Molinari said more members are starting to serve fewer and fewer years. This has been a huge trend in the House of Representatives. Some have set self-imposed term limits. "This means you have a Congress that is not only less predictable, it's less reverential. People are not going to be there for life."

What does this mean to business? It means Congress is less susceptible to a Washington type of lobbying; they are responsive to one group, their constituents. "Grassroots lobbying has now taken over as the No. 1 way to get things done in Washington," she said. "Find those targeted members you have to change, go back to their hometown, spin those editorials, meet with your groups. You should also be meeting with your members of Congress on a monthly basis, and having your constituents write letters and make phone calls. That's the way this is going to happen."

A third trend will be further deterioration of the seniority system, Molinari said, particularly if the Republicans keep control. "This means you will continually get new chairs to introduce yourself to and to educate."

The fourth trend, Molinari said, is that if the Republicans keep control of the House, a significant portion of the Democrats will retire. Minority Leader Dick Gephardt has been urging senior members who don't like being minority members to stay on. If the Democrats don't make it this year, you'll see a large number of Democrats leaving. At the same time, the Republicans are more vulnerable this year. Twenty-five incumbents have retired, compared to nine Democrats. So there are more seats to protect.

Something else you have to watch, Molinari said, is what is happening in the states. Redistricting will occur in 2002 and those district lines will be drawn by the party that rules the state houses after this election.

In conclusion, Molinari said, "Forty-two days from now, the country may change dramatically for all of us and for our businesses. And despite all the uncertainty, the candidates' missteps and the media skepticism, our country will be stronger for it as we chalk up another one for democracy."